McCain has narrowed the Electoral College gap as well

[conley]

interesting results

CNN has it 221 to 189 for Obama right now, with 128 EV as tossups.

yes, i know the election isn't be held today. 

[conley]

the worm has turned.

mccain is going to have to pull out all the stops...pretty sure palin can only hurt him at this point. if the gop has some dirt on obama it'd make sense to hold until about a week to go...but in the absence of dirt it's looking more and more likely like obama will win 

RCP has it 259 to 163

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

[conley]

do you guys consider RCP fair and balanced?

tough to find impartial poll data...i dont trust drudge/msnbc/nyt/cnn/fox

[Peter1469]

RCP averages all of the polls out there.  Of course if the individual polls are bias that effects the average.  Look at Zogby and Ransmusien for fair polls.

[conley]

RCP averages all of the polls out there.  Of course if the individual polls are bias that effects the average.  Look at Zogby and Ransmusien for fair polls.

I thought Zogby recently got in trouble for some bias...anyhow, I do believe Obama has closed the gap in some swing states but I still don't think he'll win any of OH, PA, VA, FL

[Peter1469]

I have not heard that about Zogby- but I wouldn't be surprised about any poster being accused of bias.  In general Zogby has been pretty accurate. 

[pittypat65]

McCain needs to realize that this serious and nice guys finnish last. Take off the kidd gloves and get out the boxing gloves. Hit obama  where it hurts. McCain can do it.

[Gunit Hussein Sangh]

He's already demonstrated how nasty he can be with some of the smears he's come out with.

[conley]

RCP now showing Obama with leads in PA +7.9, VA +2.4, OH +2, and even FL +3

i think palin will do well tonight and cut into those leads...people are assuming the worst about her and she will perform well and thus reassure undecideds who originally were in the mccain camp but became worried after the palin backlash.

[conley]

this clickable map on RCP is addicting

i just realized even if mccain wins OH, VA and FL he is still quite likely to lose. PA and MN(+4.6) for now are solidly Obama -- and both states voted for both Gore and Kerry in the last two elections, so they're unlikely to turn red now imo. That would give Obama 273...game over

obama has significant leads in states bush won last time around like iowa, colorado, and new mexico

[Gunit Hussein Sangh]

yeah ... winning any two undecided states (3 if the two are NH and NV) and Obama wins and McCain is McToast.

[Peter1469]

We will see what the debate tonight does to the polls.  But the elephant in the room is the economy.  Unless something happens to make the economy look better (or there a major foreign policy event to distract from the economy) it is a democrat win in November.  Or at least that is the lesson of history. 

[Gunit Hussein Sangh]

At this point the only thing that would help is if Bush/Cheney resign.

[Peter1469]

Yes, with Pelosi at the helm, McCain and Palin would win in a landslide.   

[pittypat65]

RCP now showing Obama with leads in PA +7.9, VA +2.4, OH +2, and even FL +3

i think palin will do well tonight and cut into those leads...people are assuming the worst about her and she will perform well and thus reassure undecideds who originally were in the mccain camp but became worried after the palin backlash.

Thats another thing I like about you Conley. You try to be fair. I know you are a liberal but not a nasty hatefilled liberal. I appreciate that. I am a democrat but quite conservative. I am extremely prolife. Except for the hunting thing, I relate very well to Sarah Palin. She is like most of the women I know. I really like her and believe she would be a breath of fresh air in washington.