I did a little rant just now about the LVRJ's worthless congressional polls they published yesterday. Today, the LVRJ published another poll, this time on the presidential contest and this time with a half way decent sample size (625 voters) and and a lower margin of error (+/- 4%).
According to this poll the presidential contest in Nevada is a true toss-up. With 44% for McCain and 42% for Obama and 14% undecided these results are well within the margin of error.
When one looks at the regional sub-samples, it becomes clear that the outcome of the caucus is still visible. Obama was doing much better in traditionally Republican Washoe County than in traditionally Democratic Clark County. In this poll McCain leads Obama just slightly in Washoe (45-42) and Obama leads McCain in Clark County (46-39).
When one looks at the 2004 results, it's quite obvious that while McCain is still in the lead in this poll, it's not good news for him. In 2004 Kerry won Clark County by only 4.8% (51.6-46.
*, while Bush won Washoe County by 4.3% (51.3-47) and trounced Kerry in the rurals by 33 percentage points (65.4-32.4).
Kerry needed to have done much better in Clark County or not as bad in Washoe and/or the rurals to win. This poll currently shows Obama doing better than Kerry in Clark (ahead by 7% instead of 4.8%), slighty better in Washoe (down by 3% instead of 4.3%) and is doing the same as Kerry in the rurals (both down 33%).
The big unknown here are the large number of undecideds but if Obama can win Clark by a significant margin, can come within 3 or less percentage points in Washoe and maybe bring McCain's lead below 30 percentage points in the rurals then he wins Nevada.
With McCain not having the incumbency advantage, the Republicans and the country in a much worse state than in 2004, and a significant increase in Democratic voter registration numbers Obama has a very good chance at winning Nevada in November.
http://mysilverstate.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=675Thought of you Pittypat when I read this
