How would the West respond to an immediate Russian attack to seize all of Georgia and the Ukraine and provide this ultimatum to Poland: renounce your treaty with the decadent US within 24 hours? (I will leave the “or else” unsaid.)
Beyond bluster and pontificating, I'm not sure that NATO has the resources or will to do much.
I might also point out that the last time Britain and France were the guarantors of Polish sovereignty it went rather poorly for them; at least until we Yanks joined the fray.
Though recent additions to NATO – such as Poland, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania – appear stalwart in their opposition to a resurgent Russia, its growing belligerence and Georgian aggression; there are some very serious questions concerning the ultimate resolve of the more senior members of the alliance.
In April, the alliance rejected a US-supported proposal to admit Georgia and Ukraine on the insistence of Germany and France; in deference to Russian objections to NATO’s eastward expansion. Though a review of the two states’ proposed membership is slated for December, in light of the Article 5 collective response required to an attack on a member state, the invasion of Georgia may well chill the alliance’s will to expand further into Russia’s near abroad.
Though some would consider the foreign ministers’ joint statement yesterday as strongly worded, Dmitry Rogozin - Russian ambassador to NATO - mockingly downplayed the significance of the emergency meeting; dismissing it as, ‘The mountain gave birth to a mouse.”
Perhaps Rogozin’s confidence is rooted in Russian recognition of the priorities of what former United States Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld referred to as “Old Europe”.
With Germany and France again stepping to the forefront in opposition in the emergency meeting, more severe penalties and harsher language supported by the US and the “New European” states was rejected. Counseling that the alliance should avoid opening the door to a new Cold War by isolating Russia, the “Old European” powers tacitly acknowledged they had little stomach for a direct confrontation with the resurgent Bear.
Additionally, they have signaled that their commercial interests and increasing dependence on Russian energy exports take priority over other geopolitical considerations. While some would characterize this as appeasement, others would suggest it is a real politik specific to their proximity to and increasing interdependence with Russia.
Moreover, one questions if the British wish to revisit the battlefields of the Crimea where the legendary Light Brigade met its’ poetically tragic fate in a hail of Russian shot and shells. How much blood is London, Berlin and Paris willing to spill in order to defend Georgians and Ukrainians from their former Kremlin masters? The answer would appear to be little, if any.
I must say, however, your question is both highly astute and timely.
In light of the West's response to Russia's invasion; ongoing destruction of Georgian infrastructure; utter contempt for diplomacy and bold-faced lies, I would suggest Mr. Putin and the Generals in the Kremlin are taking a very serious look at Ukraine. With Ukrainian President Yushchenko offering the West a series of former Soviet missile early warning radar installations and space control systems for integration into Western missile defenses; attempting to impose restrictions on the Russian Black Sea Fleet based at Sevastopol in Ukraine's Crimean peninsula and rising tension with the pro-Russian Prime Minister there are a number of possible pretexts for Russian intervention (a euphemistic term for invasion).
The timing is also serendipitous, I might add.
-The US will be preoccupied with the Party conventions for the next two weeks; followed by Labor Day weekend.
-Fall is quickly approaching with winter on its' heels; Europe will need Russian natural gas to fight off the chill, you know.
-America and NATO have their best troops engaged in Iraq and Afghanistan; thus precluding deployment of significant conventional forces.
-Turkey recently signaled its displeasure with the US by refusing permission for the USN Mercy to pass through the Bosporus enroute to provide humanitarian assistance to the Georgians.
-Russian nationalism is soaring having exorcised the ghosts of Afghanistan and Chechnya at the expense of the Georgian military.
-There is a clear and exploitable divide between the "Old" and "New" camps in NATO; with Germany and France leading the more cautious, Russo-accommodating "Old" camp and America being supported by the former Soviet satellites in the "New" camp.
All of this provides extremely tempting geopolitical conditions for further Russian adventurism in what it considers its rightful and historic sphere of influence.
