The Alaskan Rose and the Debate

[The Bare Knuckled Pundit]

With 32% of voters saying tonight’s vice presidential debate is Very Important in deciding how they will ultimately vote and Barack Obama having pulled out to a 5.7% lead in the Real Clear Politics average of the major polls, the stakes for Alaska Governor and Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin are indeed high. Given the surge in the polls Obama has enjoyed over the past two weeks, with 74% of voters indicating they are Very Likely to watch, tonight’s debate may be one of the last opportunities for the McCain/Palin team to break the Democrat’s momentum.

Though analysts and pundits were split over who won Friday evening’s presidential debate, voters gave the win to Obama, edging out McCain 36% to 33%.  In the process, Obama moved into the lead for being most trusted on 10 major issues from taxes and health care to Social Security and the environment. Though statistically insignificant at 1%, Obama has even taken the lead from McCain on the issue of who you trust more to handle the war in Iraq.

Though these numbers add to the dark clouds that have doggedly stalked the McCain campaign over the past two weeks, there is a proverbial silver lining and glimmer of hope. While McCain was narrowly lost to Obama in Rassmussen’s post-debate poll, 31% of voters were undecided. That corresponds directly with the 32% of voters indicating tonight’s showdown between the two second-seaters will greatly influence their vote in the presidential race.

While this provides the Republican ticket an opening in what appears to be a closing window of opportunity, it also compounds the pressure placed on Palin.

Having stumbled energetically through a handful of televised interviews of the past month that could most charitably by characterized as less than reassuring, expectations for her performance are exceedingly low in the media.

With visions of Dan Quayle haunting Republicans and filling political cartoons, Palin finds herself in an unenviable position. Much like the days leading up to her selection as his running mate, McCain again looks to the Alaska Governor to provide him with game-changing relief. Having initially energized a previously uninspired Republican base and stolen the media spotlight from Obama, subsequent concerns about her substance and credibility have resulted in the bloom falling off the Alaskan rose.

That being the case, tonight’s debate may well be a tipping point.

The pressure is on for Palin to deliver a concise, focused, substantive and credible performance. Delivering that, she and McCain live to fight another day. Should the House follow the Senate’s lead and pass the $700 billion bank bailout/rescue package, the dire economic headlines may subside and provide the Republican ticket with a long sought after respite. In conjunction with a strong showing on Palin’s part tonight, this may allow McCain to arrest the freefall he’s suffered in the polls of late. With little more than four weeks left in the campaign, it may be the Republican’s last chance to mount a credible counteroffensive in the face of the Democrat’s growing momentum. If that is to happen, Palin must rally the troops tonight, signaling that the battle is not yet lost and steeling their will for a final, climatic surge.

In contrast, should Palin appear out of her depth and over her head, it will confirm the growing impression among the media and the electorate that she is unqualified and was a rash, if not cynical, pick. Should that occur, for all intents and purposes, barring an unforeseen October surprise, the race will effectively be over.

So, faithful readers, the question is – Will the Alaskan rose boldly blossom yet again or die, withering sadly on the vine, a pale and faded shadowed of its once radiant self? Stay tuned for further updates as events warrant and the horticultural forecast firms up.

[conley]

if she forms complete sentences, she wins. the expectations are nil. i predict a GOP victory.

[MeatMop]

if she forms complete sentences, she wins. the expectations are nil.

You can thank the Palin-hating media for the low expectations.
They're on record (multiple times) having spread false information about her...they've ignored a string of Biden gaffes...

oh, the sweet, sweet irony 

MeatMop.

[OswaldTheOsprey]

if she forms complete sentences, she wins. the expectations are nil. i predict a GOP victory.

You could well be right. This is my gripe with debates-they are based on such frivolous points. Also, from a policy standpoint they are troubling-a debate does not prove who is right or wrong instead it proves who is the better debater.

OswaldTheOsprey

[conley]

if she forms complete sentences, she wins. the expectations are nil.

You can thank the Palin-hating media for the low expectations.
They're on record (multiple times) having spread false information about her...they've ignored a string of Biden gaffes...

oh, the sweet, sweet irony 

MeatMop.

recent gaffes? which ones? inquiring minds want to know!

[OswaldTheOsprey]

if she forms complete sentences, she wins. the expectations are nil.

You can thank the Palin-hating media for the low expectations.
They're on record (multiple times) having spread false information about her...they've ignored a string of Biden gaffes...

oh, the sweet, sweet irony 

MeatMop.

The Law of Unintended Consequences?

OswaldTheOsprey

[MeatMop]

Sit tight...I'll come back and edit this post...

From Brit Hume's column:

While the focus has been on Sarah Palin since she was announced as John McCain's running mate, Barack Obama's number two has had quite a run. Joe Biden told CBS he thought an Obama campaign ad mocking John McCain as a computer illiterate was "terrible." Later, after actually seeing the ad, Biden said it was OK.

Then, Biden spoke of President Franklin Roosevelt's having gone on television after the stock market crash of 1929. But Roosevelt was not president in 1929, and television was not present.

Biden also said neither he nor Obama supports clean coal technology in America. But Obama does support clean coal. Obama also said of Biden's instant criticism of the government's big loan to insurance to AIG, "I think Joe should have waited ..."

Earlier, Biden said Hillary Clinton may have been a better vice presidential pick than he and said that paying more taxes is the patriotic duty of the rich. And, he encouraged wheelchair-bound Missouri State Senator Chuck Graham to stand up at a campaign rally.

I just saw where you remembered the TV thing...hopefully the others are new.

Senator Joe Biden was reading through a speech on foreign policy in Cincinnati Wednesday when he suddenly departed from his prepared text.

The Democratic vice presidential nominee criticized John McCain for opposing negotiations with Iran, saying, "After seven years... the Bush administration realized the absurdity of its own policy and sent our leading diplomat to Iran. The assistant secretary of state as he went to Tehran, sat down at the instruction of the president of the United States."

Oops.

No such meeting ever happened. There was a meeting with Iran but it was Undersecretary William Burns and it was in Switzerland — not Iran — and Burns merely sat in on discussions between Iranian representatives and other international diplomats. Burns had no negotiating role and was just an observer.

And, U.S. diplomats had previously met with Iran anyway, at a lower level in Iraq to discuss issues related to Iraq.

MeatMop.

[conley]

if she forms complete sentences, she wins. the expectations are nil. i predict a GOP victory.

You could well be right. This is my gripe with debates-they are based on such frivolous points. Also, from a policy standpoint they are troubling-a debate does not prove who is right or wrong instead it proves who is the better debater.

OswaldTheOsprey

agreed! dubya did poorly in his debates and was elected regardless. they are slightly more illuminating than campaign advertisements but the time would be better served by going over each candidate's voting record. although in the case of mccain that would take a five part mini series and in obama it would last about as long as commercial break

[conley]

Sit tight...I'll come back and edit this post...

cool! i do remember the FDR on TV one...that was funny 

[OswaldTheOsprey]

Everything is trending Obama's way and even if Palin shines and Biden stinks it may not matter. Back in 1988, Lloyd Bentsen clobbered Dan Quayle with "I knew JFK and you're no JFK" but the election was a GOP landslide.

OswaldTheOsprey

[conley]

Everything is trending Obama's way and even if Palin shines and Biden stinks it may not matter. Back in 1988, Lloyd Bentsen clobbered Dan Quayle with "I knew JFK and you're no JFK" but the election was a GOP landslide.

OswaldTheOsprey

great point! i do think at this point palin is hurting mccain more than quayle ever did with bush but i have no evidence of that

i know some people in ohio would probably would have gone mccain --and voted for bush -- but have some reservations about palin. only two people tho, so i don't think that's statistically significant. one is voting for a libertarian instead. yay!

[OswaldTheOsprey]

Everything is trending Obama's way and even if Palin shines and Biden stinks it may not matter. Back in 1988, Lloyd Bentsen clobbered Dan Quayle with "I knew JFK and you're no JFK" but the election was a GOP landslide.

OswaldTheOsprey

great point! i do think at this point palin is hurting mccain more than quayle ever did with bush but i have no evidence of that

i know some people in ohio would probably would have gone mccain --and voted for bush -- but have some reservations about palin. only two people tho, so i don't think that's statistically significant. one is voting for a libertarian instead. yay!

She does seem to be a drag. All in all, I still think it is going to be Obama's year. Barring the unforseen of course.

OswaldTheOsprey

[conley]

Sit tight...I'll come back and edit this post...

cool! i do remember the FDR on TV one...that was funny 

cnn has a front page link to this article about biden gaffes

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/02/mccain-camp-targets-bidens-gaffes-ahead-of-debate/

good ad by mccain

[MeatMop]

cnn has a front page link to this article about biden gaffes

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/02/mccain-camp-targets-bidens-gaffes-ahead-of-debate/

good ad by mccain

Good eyes, Conley, thanks.

MeatMop.

[conley]

cnn has a front page link to this article about biden gaffes

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/02/mccain-camp-targets-bidens-gaffes-ahead-of-debate/

good ad by mccain

Good eyes, Conley, thanks.

MeatMop.

no prob...no one will ever accuse cnn of being in the middle but it's something

you guys have actually opened my eyes a lot to how biased these media outfits are, starting with the NYT smear job on mccain suggesting he hooked up with that lobbyist (during the primary season)