The Toss Up States Per RCP

[conley]

                          Obama   McCain                                         2000              2004

Ohio (20)             48.2     45.2    Obama +3.0   Toss Up          Bush +2.1   Bush +3.5
Florida (27)             48.6     45.6    Obama +3.0   Toss Up           Bush +5.0   Bush +0.1
Nevada (5)            49.3    47.5  Obama +1.8     Toss Up          Bush +2.6      Bush +3.5
Virginia (13)              49.0      46.6    Obama +2.4   Toss Up            Bush +8.2   Bush +8.1
North Carolina (15)   47.0   46.5  Obama +0.5     Toss Up        Bush +12.4       Bush +12.8
Missouri (11)             46.8     48.5   McCain +1.7   Toss Up           Bush +7.2   Bush +3.3
Indiana (11)             45.3     47.5   McCain +2.2   Toss Up          Bush +20.7   Bush +15.7
Colorado (9)             47.6     44.6   Obama +3.0   Toss Up         Bush +4.7          Bush +8.4

They're all states that went to Bush the last two elections. If they all (except Nevada..5 ev semi irrelavant for this discussion) go for McCain this time around then he wins...
All Obama needs is 6 electoral votes, meaning if he wins any of these states besides Nevada that would put him over the top. He's got 264 solid/leaning per the polls.

Still waiting to see the McCain bounce, guess there should be some new polls next week.

[conley]

from the AP:

"In Colorado, Democrats and Republicans are now outnumbered by voters who are not members of either major party.

Independents were instrumental in the elections of U.S. Sen. Ken Salazar and Gov. Bill Ritter, both moderate Democrats.

“In statewide races, we've just seen independents dictate sort of a different political landscape and we think Barack Obama will absolutely take advantage of that because of the contrast between him and McCain,” Ritter said. “Independents are looking for vision. They're looking for somebody who has a sense about the 21st century and a way of thinking about it differently.”

good for colorado...it would be great to see independents outnumber dems and repubs across the entire country

[conley]

(RCP has New Hampshire and New Mexico in the leaning Obama category)

[OswaldTheOsprey]

Barring a major scandal/disaster, it looks like it is Obama's year.

OswaldTheOsprey

[Mr. Dirlewanger]

Barring a major scandal/disaster, it looks like it is Obama's year.

OswaldTheOsprey

Yeah, it looks that way. Anything could happen but it looks like we will have our second Black president.  I definitely prefer McCain to Obama but it's hard to get excited about McCain.

[OswaldTheOsprey]

Barring a major scandal/disaster, it looks like it is Obama's year.

OswaldTheOsprey

Yeah, it looks that way. Anything could happen but it looks like we will have our second Black president.  I definitely prefer McCain to Obama but it's hard to get excited about McCain.

It is easier to get depressed than excited about this election.

OswaldTheOsprey

[conley]

yeah...well, whoever doesn't like obama can take solace in the fact that it will probably be a one term presidency. mccain as well...i think there is a lot of bad economic news coming down the pike and as we've seen in this election, that definitely impacts the party in control. neither one of these guys is going to be able to deliver what they're promising and in reality are probably going to have to cut a lot of government programs as well as raise taxes

[Wowster]

I'm still waiting for my tax cuts, border security, free healthcare and the end of war that Democrats promised in 2006 

[OswaldTheOsprey]

yeah...well, whoever doesn't like obama can take solace in the fact that it will probably be a one term presidency. mccain as well...i think there is a lot of bad economic news coming down the pike and as we've seen in this election, that definitely impacts the party in control. neither one of these guys is going to be able to deliver what they're promising and in reality are probably going to have to cut a lot of government programs as well as raise taxes

Very good observation, conley. The winner may be more ill-fated than the loser.

OswaldTheOsprey

[Gunit Hussein Sangh]

Unlike ya'll, I'm excited with this election. I'm excited that Obama is running away with this election.

Unlike ya'll I believe that someone who will look at problems realistically instead of with idealogy can solve them.

I also don't believe Obama will be a one term president. If he solves the problems our country faces, he'll easily win re-election. If he fucks up and doesn't solve them, then I will agree with the statement that he'll be a one-termer.

[OswaldTheOsprey]

Unlike ya'll, I'm excited with this election. I'm excited that Obama is running away with this election.

Unlike ya'll I believe that someone who will look at problems realistically instead of with idealogy can solve them.

I also don't believe Obama will be a one term president. If he solves the problems our country faces, he'll easily win re-election. If he fucks up and doesn't solve them, then I will agree with the statement that he'll be a one-termer.

Time will tell. Gunit, a lot of people are excited about Obama-this has its good side, but sometimes the higher the excitement the greater the disappointment.

OswaldTheOsprey

[conley]

to be clear, i do hope he solves all our problems...i am just a bit skeptical

imho it's too much for one president to solve (Especially when things are going to get worse)

and it will require a bipartisan effort, which i dont see happening on either side

tom davis, the well known house repub, is not running for reelection b/c he is so tired of the party fighting..good article about it on the nyt

if politicians continue to put party ahead of country then no president will be able to save us

[OswaldTheOsprey]

to be clear, i do hope he solves all our problems...i am just a bit skeptical

imho it's too much for one president to solve (Especially when things are going to get worse)

and it will require a bipartisan effort, which i dont see happening on either side

tom davis, the well known house repub, is not running for reelection b/c he is so tired of the party fighting..good article about it on the nyt

if politicians continue to put party ahead of country then no president will be able to save us

Grim but true. I saw the article on Davis-sad. I too hope Obama can make some changes, but I'll take a wait and see attitude.

OswaldTheOsprey

[spunkloaf]

Barring a major scandal/disaster, it looks like it is Obama's year.

OswaldTheOsprey

Yeah, it looks that way. Anything could happen but it looks like we will have our second Black president.  I definitely prefer McCain to Obama but it's hard to get excited about McCain.

LOL--or, are you excited to get hard about McCain?

Totally kidding.


I didn't pick up on your pun on "second black president", but I am bothered by Obama because I don't want another rich white man in the white house. 

[Gunit Hussein Sangh]

to be clear, i do hope he solves all our problems...i am just a bit skeptical

imho it's too much for one president to solve (Especially when things are going to get worse)

and it will require a bipartisan effort, which i dont see happening on either side

tom davis, the well known house repub, is not running for reelection b/c he is so tired of the party fighting..good article about it on the nyt

if politicians continue to put party ahead of country then no president will be able to save us

This is why I want the dems to get a filibuster proof majority in the senate. As long as republicans have the ability to throw a monkey-wrench into things, they will.

This way if dems have the ability to get things done and solve the problems, they'll get the credit. If they don't ... they'll get the blame.

bipartisanship requires two parties willing to compromise for the good of the country. republicans have not demostrated the ability to do that.