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Author Topic: Iran: America’s Options  (Read 2805 times)

Offline Captain Obvious

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Re: Iran: America’s Options
« Reply #10 on: November 16, 2011, 11:01:47 PM »
Maybe you're right.

We'll find out soon enough.

I'm betting the Iranians build a bomb and it goes unchecked.
Write drunk, edit sober - Ernest Hemingway

Offline Conley

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Re: Iran: America’s Options
« Reply #11 on: November 16, 2011, 11:08:32 PM »
You're probably right. Obama has been more willing to use the military than I thought he would be but I don't understand the reasoning for his recent deployments (Libya and Central Africa). Like a lot of problems it seems this one is being kicked down the road for someone else to deal with.
Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. -Eisenhower

Offline MMC

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Re: Iran: America’s Options
« Reply #12 on: November 17, 2011, 08:47:47 AM »
Any of you guys familiar with Game Theory? Professor Bruce De Mesquita. This is one of the Gentlemen that the CIA is using and has been using. This was his prediction in 2009 if Iran would get the bomb. It is a long Piece considering what he has already dealt with in his political predictions. He has been on TV covered by the History Channel as well as the Discovery Channel. Including an ABC Special. Covered pretty much by most News outlets.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/16/magazine/16Bruce-t.html?pagewanted=all

Can Game Theory Predict When Iran Will Get the Bomb?
Is Iran going to build a bomb?

Since the early 1980s, C.I.A. officials have hired him to perform more than a thousand predictions; a study by the C.I.A., now declassified, found that Bueno de Mesquita’s predictions “hit the bull’s-eye” twice as often as its own analysts did.

Last year, Bueno de Mesquita decided to forecast whether Iran would build a nuclear bomb. With the help of his undergraduate class at N.Y.U., he researched the primary power brokers inside and outside the country — anyone with a stake in Iran’s nuclear future. Once he had the information he needed, he fed it into his computer model and had an answer in a few minutes.....snip~

Whatcha think?
"To destroy this invisible government, To dissolve this UNHOLY ALLIANCE between Corrupt Buisness and Corrupt Politics is the First task of the Statesmanship of the DAY" ~Theodore Roosevelt~ Steward of The People!

Offline Conley

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Re: Iran: America’s Options
« Reply #13 on: November 17, 2011, 09:26:20 AM »
But as the computer model ran forward in time, through 2009 and into 2010, positions shifted. American and Israeli national-security players grudgingly accepted that they could tolerate Iran having some civilian nuclear-energy capacity. Ahmadinejad, Khamenei and the religious radicals wavered; then, as the model reached our present day, their power — another variable in Bueno de Mesquita’s model — sagged significantly.

Amid the thousands of rows on the spreadsheet, there’s one called Forecast. It consists of a single number that represents the most likely consensus of all the players. It begins at 160 — bomb-making territory — but by next year settles at 118, where it doesn’t move much. “That’s the outcome,” Bueno de Mesquita said confidently, tapping the screen.

What does 118 mean? It means that Iran won’t make a nuclear bomb. By early 2010, according to the forecast, Iran will be at the brink of developing one, but then it will stop and go no further. If this computer model is right, all the dire portents we’ve seen in recent months — the brutal crackdown on protesters, the dubious confessions, Khamenei’s accusations of American subterfuge — are masking a tectonic shift. The moderates are winning, even if we cannot see that yet.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/16/magazine/16Bruce-t.html?pagewanted=all

This just pisses me off. The CIA needs real intel, not some joker with a computer. Iran will get to the brink of building a bomb and then stop. What?  The U.S. will be ok with Iran have nuclear power plants (and thus the waste needed for a dirty bomb). What? I mean I know this was back in 2009 but he was only predicting a year into the future. Wouldn't surprise me if he's exaggerating his importance to the CIA either...a lot of loons say they've worked for the CIA but then because it's 'classified'  ::) it can't be confirmed. The NYT wouldn't be the first paper suckered in to a story like that.
Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. -Eisenhower

Offline MMC

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Re: Iran: America’s Options
« Reply #14 on: November 17, 2011, 09:54:06 AM »
The CIA does the same thing bro.....use a computer model with their analysts too. Here is the Good profesor on the Daily Show talking about Iran and how and what is fed into the puter.

http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/mon-september-28-2009/bruce-bueno-de-mesquita

I didnt have to go with the NY TIMES. There are plenty of Articles on it even with the UK and Republican Think Tanks as well as Democratic Ones. CNN Interview, NBC, ABC, so I think it has been confirmed with his work for the CIA. But like he said he wished they gave him more work. But they don't!

Still in this video he also explains about Irans Heirarchy.
"To destroy this invisible government, To dissolve this UNHOLY ALLIANCE between Corrupt Buisness and Corrupt Politics is the First task of the Statesmanship of the DAY" ~Theodore Roosevelt~ Steward of The People!

Offline Conley

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Re: Iran: America’s Options
« Reply #15 on: November 17, 2011, 10:00:43 AM »
Oh I know they use computers. They spend money on everything, a lot of it is waste IMO.

Let me ask you this, looking at that computer simulation would you have believed what it predicted? Considering that the predictions were made in mid 2009 about early 2010? Doesn't it seem ridiculous to you that Iran would get to the brink of building a bomb and then decide to stop?
Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. -Eisenhower

Offline MMC

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Re: Iran: America’s Options
« Reply #16 on: November 17, 2011, 10:24:18 AM »
Oh I know they use computers. They spend money on everything, a lot of it is waste IMO.

Let me ask you this, looking at that computer simulation would you have believed what it predicted? Considering that the predictions were made in mid 2009 about early 2010? Doesn't it seem ridiculous to you that Iran would get to the brink of building a bomb and then decide to stop?

Other than who the players were and where they stood. Yeah, I could go with that. As far them stoping themselves if they were that close in achieving such. I wouldnt go for that. As we have all seen. Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. So I would see a divison in the Iranians Heirarchy. Someone either to make the grab for power. Or to hide that Power from others of their own kind.

But then if the Iranians were so hell bent on the destruction of others and themselves. Why would they use Nukes in the first place. Seems to me if they wanted to be some evil pukes. They could unleash some biological diseases, and poisons doing far more greater damage than what a Nuke will do. Especially if any are contagious. It would be more of a surprise onto all. Creep up slowly like.

Course then the World would condemn them of Crimes agaisnt All of Humanity. Then being wiped out from existence themselves.
"To destroy this invisible government, To dissolve this UNHOLY ALLIANCE between Corrupt Buisness and Corrupt Politics is the First task of the Statesmanship of the DAY" ~Theodore Roosevelt~ Steward of The People!

Offline GRUMPY

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Re: Iran: America’s Options
« Reply #17 on: November 17, 2011, 02:04:52 PM »
Unfortunately GW engaged us in a frivolous war in Iraq that completely exhausted our resources, trashed our global credibility which makes it virtually impossible to deal with the real threats that is Iran (and N. Korea).

... just like I said years ago.

So we sit here in our folly and watch the real enemy progress.
son that is ridiculous bs......

Offline jgreer

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Re: Iran: America’s Options
« Reply #18 on: November 17, 2011, 03:30:49 PM »
Nope its the truth
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