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Author Topic: Iran: America’s Options  (Read 2806 times)

Offline Mister D

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Iran: America’s Options
« on: November 16, 2011, 12:56:38 PM »
Snip

Only fools and the willfully obtuse still believe Iran is not working on a nuclear bomb. In fact, the Iranians are probably much closer to having a bomb than even many pessimists have credited. The question now is: What are the United States and the world going to do about it? Continuing along the path we have been on for a decade would mean accepting that Iran will soon have the bomb. Sanctions, cyber attacks, and targeted assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists have slowed but not stopped Iran’s pursuit of the bomb. There is little chance that more of the same is going to deter the mullahs.

Snip


Can America destroy Iran’s nuclear program? The answer is an unequivocal yes. This may come as a surprise, since we have so often heard the opposite. For instance, many commentators claim that Iran’s program is so distributed that we cannot take it out in a single strike. So what? First, even a distributed program will have a relatively small number of crucial nodes. If those are taken out, the entire Iranian program will grind to a halt. More importantly, why are we limited to a single strike?

Another common objection is that the most important facilities are buried so deep as to make them impervious to bombing. Even if this is true, which is unlikely, of what use is a facility without power and buried under a few hundred yards of rubble and loose earth?

The most commonly used excuse for non-action, however, is that an American military strike would only cause the Iranians to redouble their efforts. Really? In any case, is there some rule against our blowing up their “redoubled” program a year or two from now? Is there not a point where even the Iranians will tire of seeing hundred-billion-dollar investments repeatedly turned into rubbish?


http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/283254/iran-america-s-options-jim-lacey?pg=2

I have a feeling this will happen...
"Pushing people forward simply because of their colour, irrespective of merit, would be most unfortunate and would of course lead to disaster. It would mean that Rhodesia would then develop into a kind of banana republic where the country would in no time be bankrupt."


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Offline Conley

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Re: Iran: America’s Options
« Reply #1 on: November 16, 2011, 01:07:41 PM »
That article is spot on.

If their nuclear facilities are spread out, that makes them even harder to defend. Our air superiority means distances are largely irrelevant.

If they are underground, so what? Bunker bomb that stuff and everything around it. No electricity, no roads, no water -> no science.

They're going to redouble their efforts? Huh? As if it wasn't a priority before? Do they have nuclear scientists just sitting at home lying on the couch eating chips and watching Springer? Hell no. They're already working on getting a nuke at max capacity. That is not even a viable argument.

I say let the Israelis go hog wild...we provide back up refueling rearming and defend oil installations. Actually we should participate in the first few bombing runs and destroy Iranian ports where they can launch from. I'd support this over Libya or Iraq any day. Such a joke...moving on Saddam and his mystery WMDs, meanwhile Iran is working on the mother of all WMDs and we do nothing.
Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. -Eisenhower

Offline Mister D

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Re: Iran: America’s Options
« Reply #2 on: November 16, 2011, 01:22:38 PM »
That article is spot on.

If their nuclear facilities are spread out, that makes them even harder to defend. Our air superiority means distances are largely irrelevant.

If they are underground, so what? Bunker bomb that stuff and everything around it. No electricity, no roads, no water -> no science.

They're going to redouble their efforts? Huh? As if it wasn't a priority before? Do they have nuclear scientists just sitting at home lying on the couch eating chips and watching Springer? Hell no. They're already working on getting a nuke at max capacity. That is not even a viable argument.

I say let the Israelis go hog wild...we provide back up refueling rearming and defend oil installations. Actually we should participate in the first few bombing runs and destroy Iranian ports where they can launch from. I'd support this over Libya or Iraq any day. Such a joke...moving on Saddam and his mystery WMDs, meanwhile Iran is working on the mother of all WMDs and we do nothing.

Agreed on all points. The author is correct to suggest that even the Iranians will tire of having a 100 billion dollar investments reduced to ashes. He's also right that this will set off a nuclear arms race in the Mid East.
"Pushing people forward simply because of their colour, irrespective of merit, would be most unfortunate and would of course lead to disaster. It would mean that Rhodesia would then develop into a kind of banana republic where the country would in no time be bankrupt."


~Ian Smith

Offline GRUMPY

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Re: Iran: America’s Options
« Reply #3 on: November 16, 2011, 03:22:39 PM »
it is important the WE smoke iran to put the stamped on by the usofa label on that region for a long long time to come....and when i say smoked i mean take it all out, whether flies, rides, floats or glows orange....iran has been at war with us since 79 and has been killing americans directly or via proxy it is time to finish this.....   

Offline Captain Obvious

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Re: Iran: America’s Options
« Reply #4 on: November 16, 2011, 10:28:20 PM »
Unfortunately GW engaged us in a frivolous war in Iraq that completely exhausted our resources, trashed our global credibility which makes it virtually impossible to deal with the real threats that is Iran (and N. Korea).

... just like I said years ago.

So we sit here in our folly and watch the real enemy progress.
Write drunk, edit sober - Ernest Hemingway

Offline Conley

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Re: Iran: America’s Options
« Reply #5 on: November 16, 2011, 10:33:33 PM »
I agree that W screwed the pooch with Iraq, and that does make our current efforts more difficult.

Even still I do believe we have the capability and should take some sort of action...we aren't so spent as to justify idly siting by while this happens. North Korea we couldn't exactly do anything about with China right there, but this we can definitely prevent or at the least stall significantly.
Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. -Eisenhower

Offline Captain Obvious

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Re: Iran: America’s Options
« Reply #6 on: November 16, 2011, 10:41:57 PM »
Iran has the backing of China and Russia.  Engaging Iran means we piss both of them off.

Are we poised to make this sort of move at this point.

Fuck no.

Miss him now?
Write drunk, edit sober - Ernest Hemingway

Offline Conley

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Re: Iran: America’s Options
« Reply #7 on: November 16, 2011, 10:45:15 PM »
Iran has the backing of China and Russia.  Engaging Iran means we piss both of them off.

Are we poised to make this sort of move at this point.

Fuck no.

Miss him now?

They'll be pissed regardless.

Do you think they would engage our military? I don't. China and Russia don't want a nuclear Middle East either. We're all in the same boat, desperate for the oil and therefore the stability. Additionally China and Russia are much closer geographically and have separatist/terrorist issues all their own, where some of that nuclear material could end up. I see them as bitching and moaning and upping their arms sales, not much else.
Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. -Eisenhower

Offline Captain Obvious

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Re: Iran: America’s Options
« Reply #8 on: November 16, 2011, 10:50:52 PM »
Iran has the backing of China and Russia.  Engaging Iran means we piss both of them off.

Are we poised to make this sort of move at this point.

Fuck no.

Miss him now?

They'll be pissed regardless.

Do you think they would engage our military? I don't. China and Russia don't want a nuclear Middle East either. We're all in the same boat, desperate for the oil and therefore the stability. Additionally China and Russia are much closer geographically and have separatist/terrorist issues all their own, where some of that nuclear material could end up. I see them as bitching and moaning and upping their arms sales, not much else.

What makes this issue hard to contemplate is the behind the scenes involvement.

Everyone is in communication with each other, we only get to see what we get to see in the media.  There's always more to the story.

The other issue that I alluded to is - who supports us?  And Israel?  If we engage, who backs us?  if it's just us and Israel, we're fucked right out of the gate -that gives Russia and China a whole lot of latitude to work with.  If it's us, most of Europe, Canada, Australia and the rest of the other western contingency, then yeah - we have a shot.

You think those camps will side with us after this Iraq clusterfuck?  And in this economy that's hitting us all?

Write drunk, edit sober - Ernest Hemingway

Offline Conley

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Re: Iran: America’s Options
« Reply #9 on: November 16, 2011, 10:57:34 PM »
It depends what level of commitment we're talking about. I don't think they'll offer much in the way of military assistance and I don't think we need or want it. I am talking about bombing (extensively) not an occupation like Iraq part 2. Screw nation building, it's useless.

I am fairly certain all of Europe, Canada, Australia and really everywhere other than those aligned with Russia and China will support this action. Everyone agrees that Iran is working towards the bomb. No one will step in to stop us or the Israelis. At the end of the day we're the country that strikes first and strikes hardest...Russia and China haven't done much lately outside their borders (maybe if you count the episode in Georgia, but that was on the Russians' doorstep).
Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. -Eisenhower

 


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